525 FXUS63 KJKL 021953 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 353 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures are expected through the upcoming week, with record or near-record temperatures forecast for Tuesday. - The next chance for widespread measurable rainfall arrives Tuesday evening into Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 353 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2024 Expecting a quiet, uneventful short term. Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will guarantee fair weather through the period, with afternoon temperatures averaging 10-15 degrees above our normal highs of about 60 degrees for tomorrow. Overnight lows will be close to normal tonight, ranging from the mid 30s in our coolest valley locations to the mid 40s along our thermal belt. With the surface high to our east tomorrow night, a strengthening southerly gradient wind (return flow) will lift temperatures above normal levels for the entire area with lows ranging from the mid 40s in our most sheltered valleys in the east to mid 50 along the thermal belt. Western valley locations will also tend to remain mixed out to an extent, arresting the sharp drop off typically experience under more ideal radiative conditions. In addition, there will be a noticeable surge in surface moisture through the day Sunday, as dew points climb into the 50s behind a passing warm front lifting northward across the area. No precipitation is expected with this feature. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 554 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024 The beginning of the long term forecast period is marked by persistent warm air advection amidst deep southerly to southwesterly flow. Aloft, a staunch ridge will gradually shift northward towards the Carolinas as a deep trough ejects from the Plains into the Midwest. At the surface, Eastern Kentucky will be firmly in the warm sector by Sunday night, with the earlier warm front near the Ohio River and this weekend's high pressure system up in New England. This synoptic set up will yield much warmer than normal temperatures and much higher atmospheric moisture content than what is climatologically expected here in early November. On Sunday night, minimum temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s, nearly 15 degrees warmer than the previous night. This is a direct result of the aforementioned warm air advection, as is an increase in cloud coverage. Prolonged cloud coverage in the overnight hours will work to relegate the effects of radiative cooling and thus the conventional ridge-valley temperature splits overnight. Thus, the warming trend continues on both Monday and Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 70s area wide, and overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 50s. By Tuesday, the center of the upper level ridge will be closer to the forecast area. This will increase subsidence, decrease cloud coverage, and facilitate strong diurnal mixing processes on Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day in the forecast period, with potentially record-breaking highs near 80 degrees across much of the area under partly cloudy skies. A tightening pressure gradient will foster gusty winds ahead of an approaching cold front into Tuesday night. This cold front will trigger widespread rain chances across Eastern Kentucky on Tuesday night and through the day on Wednesday. PoPs peak between 60-70% across the northwestern half of the area, where upper level support will be greatest. Instability continues to look very low at this time, and the nocturnal approach of the front will further limit thunder chances. Instead, expect a decent measurable rain across the Commonwealth from this system, especially given the front is expected to stall near our area. Given the strength and persistence of the upper level ridge over the southeastern CONUS, once this system's parent upper level trough ejects northeast, upper level flow over Kentucky becomes quasi-zonal again. This will allow the cloud coverage and rain chances to linger for a few more days, albeit with less dynamic support and thus at lower magnitudes. The continuation of these chances will allow most of the area to receive a wetting rain by the end of the long term forecast period. The latest modeled LREF ensemble probabilities of greater than a quarter of an inch of rain through the end of the forecast period are >65% across the entire area. The best chances of higher rainfall totals will be further west, further away from the influence of the ridge and closer to the better upper level dynamic support during the main event on Tuesday night/Wednesday. The storm total QPF for this first period of rainfall has trended downward across the eastern half of the CWA, but the persistence of rain chances for a few more days is captured in this more recent LREF data. With this being said, there remains some model disagreement with the forecast for Friday and beyond, so confidence in exactly how long these damper and cloudier conditions will stick around is low. A drying trend may emerge by next weekend, but slight chance PoPs remain in the grids on Friday in this particular forecast package. Temperatures late next week will be cooler than they were out ahead of the front, but will remain seasonably mild. Expect highs in the lower 70s/upper 60s and lows in the 50s/upper 40s on Thursday/Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2024 Expecting VFR flight conditions through the forecast period. Fog and stratus that plagued southeast-eastern portions of the area this morning has finally lifted and dissipated in total. Besides reformation of mainly river valley fog again tonight, which is not expected to impact any terminals at this time, there will only be some passing cirrus of varying thickness to contend with through the period. Winds are expected to be light and variable, at 5 kts or less with a tendency to flow out of the east-southeast. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...MARCUS AVIATION...RAY